Coming towards the end of the year, most digital marketers are hard at work getting their accounts ready for peak period. Black Friday & Christmas are on us before we know it and one wrong move can mean the difference between celebrations or awkward conversations in January.
In a way, it’s nice. Peak period is so all-consuming that marketers have the chance to block out the outside world and entirely focus their energy on the success of their campaigns. When conversion rates are soaring and revenue is flooding in, there’s nothing else to worry about, right?
Well, not quite.
The end of one year means the start of another and in between all the peak period hype marketers will find themselves facing the task of building out an accurate, forward thinking forecast for 2024. It’s this forecast that teams will be held to for the next 12 months and it’s crucial that it’s given the attention it deserves. While it’s tough to carve out the time that forecasting deserves, getting it right pays off in the long run and there’s a few simple things to keep in mind to ensure that there’s no nasty surprises as Q1 2024 comes to an end.
1) Find The Patterns
Most industries have a fairly predictable cycle. If you’re an ecommerce store you know that Q4 is where the real sales volume is. If you’re selling home insulation, it makes sense that you’ll be pushing your budgets as autumn comes to an end. If you’re a university, the day exam results are released is the day you start pushing your spend.
Breaking down your annual cycle to understand the patterns of when your customers are searching and when they’re converting is the first step to accurately forecasting the year ahead. The budgets might change but the percentage split between months will stay similar and give you a strong guide as to where you should be focusing your attention. Unless something dramatically changes in your industry, previous data is your best source to start your future planning.
2) It’s Not All About You
It’s easy to get laser focused on your account and forget the bigger picture. When you’re working with national or global businesses, your marketing channel is just one piece of the wider marketing mix.
Understanding the strategic priorities and marketing goals of your business is critical to accurate forecasting. If you’re working in Paid Search but your business is significantly pushing Paid Social & Display for brand awareness in 2024, you need to factor in that you’ll see increasing search volume as the year goes on and more customers find the business.
Similarly, the business could be releasing a new product line or pivoting their entire operation into a new market or industry. Without accounting for this change and the impact on your channel, the forecast will quickly become inaccurate, leading to the need for a whole new plan just a few months into the year.
As with any planning piece, asking questions and getting the full story is crucial to making sure that channel specific planning is as accurate as possible.
3) What’s New?
By December, the digital marketing landscape looks completely different to how it appeared in January. New campaign types are released, tools are launched and the marketing community comes up with increasingly innovative ways to get the most out of their campaigns.
Performance Max is a great example of this. First launched in late 2021, this year has seen mass adoption of this campaign type and a complete change in Paid Search strategies to account for greater automation options and new opportunities.
Accounting for potential new campaign strategies and the implications that this will have on your account will help to make forecasting as accurate as possible. Even if you’re not running a particular campaign type at the moment there’s any number of case studies available that will give clear benchmarks of what to expect as new tactics are introduced into marketing plans.
No forecast is ever 100% accurate and there’s always adjustments to be made as the year goes on. However, keeping these points in mind will make reforecasting an opportunity for learning rather than a mistake fixing exercise while helping to build trust between marketing teams and businesses. Whatever the strategy for 2024, using past data, available case studies, research on opportunities and your own knowledge will help set your account up for the most successful year yet.
For a clear picture of the year ahead, get in touch.